18. Leo Linbeck III:
My general sentiments probably align with those of gokart-mozart. I’ve been checking out the weather charts, and it still is looking safe outside.
But there are other long-term problems that raise the possibility that there is something more at work here:
Demographics. European birth rates are below replacement, China will get old before it gets rich, Russia is imploding, and 40% of births in the US are out of wedlock.
Education. PK-12 education in the US is a shambles. 50% of 9th graders in urban areas will not earn a high school diploma, those that do graduate read (on average) at an 8th grade level, and less than 10% of low-income children will earn a college degree. In addition, universities have largely morphed into socialist tumors that have metastasized, infecting other major organs of US society: government, Wall Street, the justice system, and (completing the cycle) PK-12 education.
Government. The concentration of power - particularly at the Federal level - has grown inexorably over the past 50 years. And with this increasing influence has come increasing corruption, a natural result of man’s nature. Politics is increasingly partisan due to the gerrymander, and the combination of power and partisanship is a toxic brew, tempting the party in power to solidify its political position through the liberal application of patronage. Money to get the power, power to protect the money.
Secularization of the elite. Whatever one thinks of its truth claims, religion serves a very practical purpose of creating a self-imposed limitation on the exercise of power by those entrusted with control over decision-making, whether in the public or private realm. Without the “shadow of the future” created by religious institutions, the temptation to cheat becomes overwhelming for our leaders, and widespread cheating undermines the foundations of liberty - freedom relies on systemic trust to function efficiently.
Unfunded pension and entitlement liabilities. By some estimates, the US Social Security and Medicare system has an unfunded liability of $100 trillion, or about 7 times our GDP. In addition, there are large liabilities in both public and private defined-benefit pension plans, and even the defined-contribution plans like 401(k)s have taken a severe hit from the current financial mess.
Asymmetrical security threats. Jihadism is the most well-known such threat, but there are others, ranging from drug cartels to white supremacists groups that are largely untracked by our authorities (think Timothy McVeigh). These threats impose a substantial psychological and physical cost to our society, and we are forced into a defensive position and waste countless (otherwise productive) hours waiting in lines and taking off our shoes.
Each of these challenges is non-trivial, and the concern is that their collective weight may be more than our society can bear.
But all that being said, I believe that there is a large American core which is solid: fertile, wise, freedom-loving, religious, thrifty, and peaceful. These folks are like the structure of a skyscraper: strong, but largely hidden from view, having been covered with a wide variety of finish materials. The fact that we have recently chosen to paint our office chartreuse, hang SI swimsuit issue covers next to a framed Velvet Elvis, and sit on contemporary (i.e. cool and uncomfortable) furnishings doesn’t mean the structure is weakened. It just means we’re overdo for a redecoration, replacing these things with items of more lasting value. Like, say, a bust of Winston Churchill.
The unknown in all this, it seems to me, is what Generation Y will do. They are the largest cohort in our nation - bigger than the Baby Boomers - and they are just starting to influence electoral politics. The fact that 68% of voters under 30 punched their card for Barack Obama is not a good sign, IMHO, as he was unaccomplished, young, and statist in his sentiments. True, he cleverly disguised these facts through a masterful campaign, but these traits are emerging into plain view at surprising speed.
How will Gen Yers react to losing their job? Or turning over increasing shares of their hard-earned money? Or discovering that bad urban teachers are protected by a powerful union? Or that raising a family is a 1.5 person job, meaning single parents spend their most productive years exhausted and lonely? Or that, in a flash, their friends can be killed by a lunatic for no rational reason?
In short, what will happen when Gen Y grows up?
I remain optimistic that they will rediscover what most of us have already learned:
- There is no free lunch
- There is evil in the world
- We must each save for our own future
- Consumption does not create happiness
- There is a GodIf they don’t learn these things, the future looks bleak - after all, they are the future, like it or not.
But if they do learn, if they do grow up, if they do become adults, our future will be very, very bright.
Either way, change will come quickly. Gen Ys are connected like no other generation in history (Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, etc.). It takes years to build a new building, but offices can be redecorated over a weekend. And collapses can happen in seconds.
That is why here at Belmont Club we talk often of inflection points, sometimes in apocalyptic language, sometimes in the language of reform. But at its core, I believe there is a deep and abiding love and appreciation for what we have, and a fear it may be lost. Sometimes fear can be crippling, other times motivating.
The choice is ours. And that, at least, is a cause for hope.
L3
Mar 7, 2009 - 9:20 am
leo is probably my favorite commenter at BC (mongoose is a close. close second)
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